THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA FINALS
L.A. Lakers (14-6 SU, 11-9 ATS) at Orlando (12-9 SU, 11-10 ATS)
The Magic, who dropped the first two games of the NBA Finals on the road, return to Amway Arena in an ostensibly must-win situation for Game 3 against the Lakers, who are now just two wins away from their 15th championship.
After getting blown out 100-75 in Game 1, Orlando stuck with Los Angeles throughout Game 2, going to overtime before falling 101-96 but cashing as a 6½-point underdog. The Magic nearly won it in regulation, but Courtney Lee’s alley-oop layup off an inbounds pass in the final second was off the mark. Rashard Lewis had a game-high 34 points in defeat, hitting 6 of 12 from three-point range, and also added 11 rebounds and seven assists. Hedo Turkoglu added 24 points, while Dwight Howard chipped in 17 points and 16 rebounds, but the star center also had seven turnovers.
After a 40-point effort in Game 1, Kobe Bryant came back Sunday and led Los Angeles with 29 points and eight assists. Bryant’s sidekicks also helped out again, as Pau Gasol had 24 points and 10 rebounds (all on the defensive end), and Lamar Odom contributed 19 points on an 8-for-9 shooting effort. After dominating the glass in Game 1 by a 55-41 margin, the Lakers got outrebounded 44-35 Sunday and gave up 10 three-pointers while hitting just five. However, Los Angeles won the turnover battle 20-12 and outshot the Magic 46.2 percent to 41.8 percent.
With Sunday’s spread-cover, Orlando is now 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) this season against Los Angeles and 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) in the last seven clashes in this rivalry. In addition, the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, with the road team cashing in six of those contests.
Orlando is 39-11 SU (29-21 ATS) at Amway Arena this season, including 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the postseason. Los Angeles is 33-16 SU (27-22 ATS) on the highway, but just 4-4 SU and ATS in the playoffs.
The Lakers, who had won and cashed in three straight prior to Sunday’s ATS setback, remain on pointspread runs of 5-1 after a non-cover, 22-8-2 as a road underdog and 16-7 when catching less than five points. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 2-11-1 in the NBA Finals, 3-10 after a SU win and 3-11 against the Southeast Division, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five against Eastern Conference foes dating to the regular season.
Despite trailing this series 2-0 SU, the Magic remain on several ATS upswings, including 8-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 21-8 against the Western Conference, 38-14 after a SU loss, 5-1 as a playoff chalk and 5-2 following a spread-cover.
The first two games of the Finals have both stayed under the total, with Game 2 falling short of the 202-point osted price despite going to overtime. Furthermore, the Lakers are on “under” tears of 10-2 overall, 10-1 against the Eastern Conference (including the last six in a row), 5-0 against the Southeast Division and 11-5 on the highway. Meanwhile, the under for Orlando is on runs of 13-6 at home, 6-0 against the Western Conference, 8-2 after a SU loss and 7-2 with the Magic favored in the postseason.
On the flip side, the last five Lakers-Magic meetings at Amway Arena have hurdled the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (33-22) at N.Y. Mets (30-25)
The Phillies continue a bicoastal 10-game road trip at new Citi Field when they open a three-game series against the rival Mets, with J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.48 ERA) slated to toe the slab for the visitors against Johan Santana (7-3, 2.00).
Philadelphia went 5-2 in Southern California last week, sweeping a three-game series from the Padres then splitting a four-game set with Los Angeles, concluding with Sunday’s 7-2 victory. The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and 13-4 in their last 17 on the highway.
Philadelphia continues to sport baseball’s best road record at 21-8. Furthermore, the defending World Series champions are on lengthy hot streaks of 57-28 overall, 35-16 as a visitor, 38-17 after a victory, 51-22 in series openers, 38-16 against winning teams, 20-7 after a day off and 8-2 versus N.L. East rivals. Meanwhile, New York is on upticks of 7-2 in divisional games, 5-1 at home, 15-5 as a favorite (5-0 as a home chalk) and 57-28 after an off day.
These rivals played a pair of two-game home-and-home series back in early May, with New York going 3-1 overall and 2-0 at home. Dating to last season, the Mets are on a 10-5 overall run in this rivalry, winning five of the last seven clashes in New York.
Happ pitched seven scoreless innings in Wednesday’s 5-1 victory in San Diego, scattering four hits and two walks. The young southpaw has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, with the Phillies going 6-1 in those contests. They’re also 4-0 in Happ’s last four against the N.L. East, and he’s 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA on the road this season.
Happ has faced the Mets once in each of the last two seasons – both at home – and he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in either game, giving up a combined seven runs in 8 2/3 innings, but Philadelphia split the two contests, losing 8-3 and winning 3-2.
Santana has been shaky by his standards in his last four starts, yielding a total of 15 runs (12 earned) in 26 innings (4.15 ERA). Regardless, the Mets are 3-1 during this four-game stretch, and with Santana pitching, they’re still on hot streaks of 20-7 overall, 4-1 in series openers and 10-3 at home, where the veteran southpaw is 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA in six starts this season.
Since being traded to the Mets prior to last year, Santana has faced the Phillies six times and delivered six quality starts, yielding a total of 12 earned runs in 43 1/3 innings (2.49 ERA). That includes a 1-0 home win on May 6, when Santana scattered two hits and a walk while striking out 10 in seven scoreless innings. New York is 3-0 in his last three starts versus Philly.
With Happ starting, the under is on stretches of 7-0 overall, 4-0 as an underdog and 4-0 against the N.L. East, while the under is 9-3 in Santana’s last 12 starts overall, 5-2 in his last seven at home and 8-1 in his last nine series openers.
Philadelphia carries “under” trends of 12-3-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 against the N.L. East, 5-0-1 in series openers, 7-2 as a ‘dog, 7-1 against lefty starters and 4-0 after a day off. Likewise, the Mets are on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 versus the N.L. East, 4-0-1 on Tuesday and 5-1 in series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (34-23) at Boston (33-24)
The Yankees make their second trek of the season to Fenway Park for a three-game series against the hated Red Sox, and for the second time in six weeks, New York’s A.J. Burnett (4-2, 4.69) will match up against Boston ace Josh Beckett (6-2, 4.09).
With the Red Sox idle last night, the Yankees took over sole possession of first place in the A.L. East with a 5-3 victory over Tampa Bay to close out a six-game home stand with a 4-2 record. New York enters this series on positive streaks of 19-6 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 7-1 against A.L. East foes and 11-4 versus right-handed starters.
Boston followed up a four-game winning streak (all on the road) by losing two of three at home to Texas over the weekend. Despite that, the BoSox are on upticks of 83-37 at home, 16-6 against the A.L. East, 25-12 as a favorite, 23-10 in series openers, 49-18 after a day off and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Although New York has a one-game lead over Boston in the standings, the Sox are a perfect 5-0 against the Bronx Bombers this season and have won six straight meetings dating to last year (4-0 at Fenway). This year, the Red Sox have scored a total of 38 runs against Yankee pitching.
Burnett is coming off consecutive victories over the Rangers (12-3 at home, 9-2 on the road), allowing a combined three runs and 11 hits in 13 innings (2.08 ERA). With the six-inning scoreless effort at Texas two starts ago, the veteran right-hander improved to 3-1 with a 4.78 ERA in five road starts in 2009.
Burnett’s worst road outing of the season came on April 25 in Boston, as he got rocked for eight runs in five innings, with New York losing 16-11. Still, he’s 5-0 with a 3.52 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox.
Beckett has been dominant in his last three outings, giving up only one earned run and 10 hits in 22 2/3 innings (0.40 ERA) with a 22-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In Tuesday’s 10-5 victory at Detroit, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finished allowing just two hits in 7 2/3 frames. Boston improved to 5-1 in Beckett’s last six starts, all of them quality outings (three earned runs or fewer allowed in at least six innings pitched.
The Red Sox are 4-1 in Beckett’s five home outings this season and 6-1 in his last seven versus divisional rivals. Also, they’re 6-1 in his last seven starts against the Yankees, including that 16-11 victory over Burnett in April in which Beckett gave up eight runs in five innings. He came back 10 days later in New York and beat the Yanks 7-3, again surrendering 10 hits but only the three runs. Beckett is 8-4 with a 5.80 ERA in 14 career regular-season starts versus the Yankees.
The Yankees are on “under” stretches of 4-1-1 on the road, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 4-1-1 with Burnett pitching. Also, the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 19-7-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 7-1 against righty starters, 4-0 after a day off, 4-1 in Beckett’s last five starts overall and 5-2-1 in his last eight at home. Lastly, four of the last five Yanks-Sox clashes in Beantown have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
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